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The cause of reduced leaf-level transpiration under elevated CO2 remains largely elusive. Here, we assessed stomatal, hydraulic, and morphological adjustments in a long-term experiment on Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) seedlings germinated and grown for 22–40 months under elevated (eCO2; c. 860 ppm) or ambient (aCO2; c. 410 ppm) CO2. We assessed if eCO2-triggered reductions in canopy conductance (gc) alter the response to soil or atmospheric drought and are reversible or lasting due to anatomical adjustments by exposing eCO2 seedlings to decreasing [CO2]. To quantify underlying mechanisms, we analyzed leaf abscisic acid (ABA) level, stomatal and leaf morphology, xylem structure, hydraulic efficiency, and hydraulic safety. Effects of eCO2 manifested in a strong reduction in leaf-level gc (−55%) not caused by ABA and not reversible under low CO2 (c. 200 ppm). Stomatal development and size were unchanged, while stomatal density increased (+18%). An increased vein-to-epidermis distance (+65%) suggested a larger leaf resistance to water flow. This was supported by anatomical adjustments of branch xylem having smaller conduits (−8%) and lower conduit lumen fraction (−11%), which resulted in a lower specific conductivity (−19%) and leaf-specific conductivity (−34%). These adaptations to CO2 did not change stomatal sensitivity to soil or atmospheric drought, consistent with similar xylem safety thresholds. In summary, we found reductions of gc under elevated CO2 to be reflected in anatomical adjustments and decreases in hydraulic conductivity. As these water savings were largely annulled by increases in leaf biomass, we do not expect alleviation of drought stress in a high CO2 atmosphere.

Forest leaf area has enormous leverage on the carbon cycle because it mediates both forest productivity and resilience to climate extremes. Despite widespread evidence that trees are capable of adjusting to changes in environment across both space and time through modifying carbon allocation to leaves, many vegetation models use fixed carbon allocation schemes independent of environment, which introduces large uncertainties into predictions of future forest responses to atmospheric CO₂fertilization and anthropogenic climate change. Here, we develop an optimization‐based model, whereby tree carbon allocation to leaves is an emergent property of environment and plant hydraulic traits. Using a combination of meta‐analysis, observational datasets, and model predictions, we find strong evidence that optimal hydraulic–carbon coupling explains observed patterns in leaf allocation across large environmental and CO₂concentration gradients. Furthermore, testing the sensitivity of leaf allocation strategy to a diversity in hydraulic and economic spectrum physiological traits, we show that plant hydraulic traits in particular have an enormous impact on the global change response of forest leaf area. Our results provide a rigorous theoretical underpinning for improving carbon cycle predictions through advancing model predictions of leaf area, and underscore that tree‐level carbon allocation to leaves should be derived from first principles using mechanistic plant hydraulic processes in the next generation of vegetation models.